Leaving the Sinking Ship

When the Jeffrey Goldbergs of this world are openly questioning whether Israel will remain a democracy, then you know the game is up. The piece is "What if Israel ceases to be a Democracy". Of course it is naive and zionist. The assumption that Israel is a democracy today, when Israeli Arabs are second class citizens and the PA is a virtual bantustan, is deeply insulting. Yet he is at least asking the question, which would have been unthinkable two years ago.

Every complacent Israeli right winger should be required to read this article and carefully consider where exactly Bibi's strategy of seeing off Obama is leading them. The interesting point is that Goldberg raises the near-taboo topic of Israel's changing demographic mix :

I'm speaking here of four groups, each ascendant to varying degrees: The
haredim, the ultra-Orthodox Jews, whose community continues to grow at a rapid clip; the working-class religious Sephardim .h.. whose interests are represented in the Knesset by the obscurantist rabbis of the Shas Party; the settler movement, which still seems to get whatever it needs in order to grow; and the million or so recent immigrants from Russia, who support, in distressing numbers, the Putin-like Avigdor Lieberman, Israel's foreign minister and leader of the "Israel is Our Home" party.

How long is it going to take for the US to realise they're dealing with a bunch of proto-fascist Russians and obsucrantist medievalists. Right now the Russians plus Haredim are almost 40% of Israel's Jewish population. Yet the IDF spokesman is always a nice, American accented white guy....

The interaction of ideology and demographics may be the tipping point in this debate. Goldberg realises that Lieberman is not a flash in the pan - he is a manifestation of long term structural changes. As Bill Clinton said "It's a different Israel today".

2011 - Year of Decision

So how will it all end? Is 2011 the year of decision?

Andrew Sullivan seems to think so. Apparantly the last two years of mind numbing inertia is another one of Barack Hussein Muhammad Ali Obama's rope-a-dope sessions, as he lures yet another self regarding opponent into the big over-reach :

What Obama has done is get Netanyahu unwittingly to make the global argument that a peace settlement cannot be won with Israel's support and cooperation - but can only be imposed somehow from outside.

It is an interesting perspective. Obama has allowed himself to be humiliated so as to demonstrate the futility of the current course. Personally I feel Sullivan places too much faith in Obama's powers of foresight - it looks more to me like an under-prepared administration groping towards a strategy. There is also the possibility that Obama has simply given up, and decided to focus on the economy for the next twelve months while, at the very least, parking the conflict until his second term.

But let's assume that Andrew Sullivan is right, and there is a larger game being played. This means that it must come to a head in 2011. The US and Israeli electoral timetables dictate that the next 12 months are the last opportunity for tough decisions to be made. The Iranian nuclear clock is also ticking towards a similar conclusion. So what impact does this have on Palestinian strategy? There are a few to note

• Abu Mazen's term as President has expired - elections to the PA are overdue
• Bolivia has now joined Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil in recognising Palestine on the 67 borders
• Salam Fayyad insists that Palestine is on track to declare statehood in August 2011

The US House of Representatives is of course passing resolutions equating Palestinian UDI to the four horsemen of the apocalypse - but these have no legal status. The President is sovereign when it comes to foreign policy. So what will actually happen over the next six months? Netanyahu continues to give Obama the run around. Abu Mazen continues to accumulate recognition throughout Latin America, and maybe also Asia. The PLO petitions the UN in August 2011 to recognise the '67 borders, while making it clear that a "No" vote will lead to Abu Mazen's resignation and the dismemberment of the PA.

Then everything will rest on Obama's Security Council veto. Obama turns to Bibi and says in his best Chicago voice "We can do this the hard way or the easy way..."

It will be fun to watch. Merry Christmas.

Argentina Recognises Palestine

A great day for Palestine.

The reaction of of the Israeli press and officialdom is interesting - Haaretz covers the announcement here and the Jerusalem Post here.

The headline of the Haaretz article is revealing in itself : "Israel warns Argentina: Recognizing Palestinian state shatters peace process". Sounds a bit like : "Child warns Father - premature removal of dummy risks tantrum!"

The decision was highly "damaging," foreign ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor
said, "because they are in fact shattering the foundation of the peace
process."

This is actually true. The foundation of the current peace process is institutionalised Israeli footdragging to provide a cover for the deepening and systemisation of the occupation. Israel believes that Oslo conferred upon them a limitless exemption from international law and a legal basis for the occupation, and thus the rest of the world no longer has a right to express an opinion on the subject.

In my opinion the shattering of this sort of "process" is exactly what the middle east needs.
The Israeli foreign ministry took the cake with this statement :

“All attempts to bypass negotiations and to unilaterally determine issues
in dispute will only harm the trust of the sides and their commitment to agreed upon frameworks for negotiations,”

Except for unilaterally building the wall, doubling the size of settlements, ethnically cleansing Sheikh Jarrah, etc - apparantly those actions don't threaten anything.

But apart from giving us the opportunity to enjoy another dose of Israeli Kafka-esque irony, there are some broader implications :

• Was the US have forewarned of the move? Is this actually a US warning shot across Bibi's bows?;
• Could Obama be preparing to ditch the whole illusion of a process, and deal directly with the final status issues via the UN security council?; and most importantly
• Could Abu Mazen be finally waking up to the power of saying no?

Let's look at the worst case scenario for Abbas - there is no US pressure on Israel and no moves forward in the peace process. Abbas then continues his trips around the world gathering more and more recognition of the 67 borders. Towards the end of 2011 he petitions the Security Council with something approaching an international consensus.

The US would veto it of course, but only after extracting huge concessions from Israel - "you are one abstention away from international pariah status".

Two State Solution Death Watch part 367

It seems we are approaching a tipping point. The One State Solution has, this year, made a serious breakthrough to mainstream political discourse.

Until recently support for a OSS has been seen as a fringe activity, even within Palestinian circles. It was seen as an empty negotiating threat, or a code word used by rejectionists - either way it was easily dismissed.

But then Ali Abuminah crystallized the idea with his seminal work "One Country - A Bold Proposal to end the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict". It was telling that the book emerged from the diaspora - immune to the lure of VIP passes and favourable treatment that are bestowed on the Ramallah Oslo industry.

Concrete foundations were laid by a large two day conference held in May 2008 at SOAS, London. I attended this gathering and was struck by two things :
1) the broad swathe of Palestinian political thought that was represented, and
2) the seriousness of the discussion, and detailed proposals

It was clear that this was not empty chatter from the "usual suspects" or river-to-the-sea dreamers, but a series of deadly serious proposals from influential people. This is reflected in the Palestinian Strategy Group. What's telling is the list of contributors - you couldn't find a more mainstream, well connected group of Palestinians.

What has surprised me is how quickly the One State Solution has broken out.
Olmert certainly de-stigmatised the discussion, by pointing out the obvious :

"If the day comes when the two-state solution collapses, and we face a South African-style struggle for equal voting rights (also for the Palestinians in the territories), then, as soon as that happens, the State of Israel is finished,"

But the breakout is surely the 60 minutes report of January 2009, openly questioning the continued viability of the two state concept. An avalanche has been unleashed.

The Daily Kos devoted a page to the discussion. It's worth quoting :

Bob Simon's tone and approach to discussing the issue struck me as dour and depressing. Simon very matter-of-factly presented the case that history has passed by the two state solution mainly because of the Jewish settlements on the West Bank.

Note the past tense, and the fact that the blame is placed squarely on the settlements.

Andrew Sullivan picked up the topic.

And on Feb 10 2009 Stephen Walt, of Walt/Mearsheimer fame, asked the question "What do we do if a Two State Solution Collapses" :

There are two trends at play that threaten to undermine the two-state option. The first is the continued expansion of Israel settlements in the land that is supposed to be reserved for the Palestinians.

Again - the settlements are prime culprit. The key point is here :

Which brings me to the third option. The Israeli government could maintain its physical control over "greater Israel" and grant the Palestinians full democratic rights within this territory. This option has been proposed by a handful of Israeli Jews and a growing number of Palestinians....if a two-state option is no longer feasible, it seems likely that the United States would come to favor this third choice.

This is no longer a taboo - in fact in his opinion the US would come to support it. The sky has yet to fall on his head.

And the Middle East Policy Council has held an entire forum on the topic.

Here is an interesting blog reaction, by Matt Eckel :

Foreign Policy Watch: If the Two State Solution Collapses...

I have a hunch that the Bush Administration's serial indulgence of Israel's worst instincts has seeded the ground for a more balanced and serious discussion of American regional interests. Absent some noticeable changes in Israeli policy, I don't see that discussion turning out well for Tel Aviv....It has always struck me that elite consensus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict seems to come ten years too late.

A very good point. The Bush administration reminded me of a delinquent parent, cutting too much slack to a problem teenager and refusing to see the upcoming trainwreck. And it is ironic that everyone supports a two state solution now that it is practicably unobtainable - where were you in 1988?

But I fundamentally disagree with this part :

On a practical level, as Walt notes, consociational multi-ethnic states have a terrible track record, particularly those that emerge from serious inter-ethnic conflict. I've also argued that the notion of a "bi-national state" is something of a misnomer, as it implies a level of social cohesion between national groups that almost certainly wouldn't exist in the Levant.

Canada, Belgium and democratic South Africa emerged from inter-ethnic conflict, as did, arguably, the United Kingdom. People forget that for centuries Scotland was England's Gaza, closely allied to their greatest enemy - France.

The other point, and this is often missed American Jews who've never visited, is the extent to which the tribes are already intermingled.

Israel's citizenship today is only 76% Jewish - not counting East Jerusalem. Every street sign is in two languages - Arabic and Hebrew. Most Palestinians speak Hebrew, and Israelis learn Arabic as part of their military service. In fact the languages are so similar they're merging - there is a Hebrew / Arabic mishmash street lingo that has become fashionable among young people. It's a completely different situation from Xhosa and Afrikaans.

And the majority of Israelis are (whisper it quietly...) Mizrahi. That means their ancestors have lived in Arab countries for a thousand years, and if you go back 2 generations Arabic was their first language. They eat the same food, listen to the same music and watch the same TV. These people are so similar to Levant Arabs in terms of looks, culture and temperament that it makes the two state solution patently absurd. The only obstacle is the 1930's Central European ethnically based nationalism that the Azkenazi elite has imposed on them.

I advise Americans not to worry so much - a One State solution will work just fine. It won't be Greenwich Village-sur-med but then, neither is the status quo...

I'm back in the USSR

Well the results from the elections are in, and it's pretty clear that Israel has become Putinized. The right has won a minimum of 65 seats and a Moldovan former nightclub bouncer and mildy reconstructed Kahanist is Israel's new political kingmaker. The country is heading for a narrow right wing government with an agenda of "loyalty tests" and "economic peace" (for which read Transfer and Reservations)

The results are actually much worse than they at first appear. When you exclude the MKs representing non-zionist parties (Arab and Hadash) the Zionist Left drops to 44. And those numbers include such noted peaceniks as Shaul Mofaz. In reality a third of Kadima are rightists, and the Likud list forced on Netanyahu is the most extreme ever.

It's ironic that the Zionist left, or what little remains of it, believes that aggressive military action on the eve of a poll is the key to unlock electoral riches - Peres in '96, Barak in 2000, and again this year. It fails every time. The right will always outbid them on the Arab-killing front.

One wonders if they will ever attempt the radical alternative of actually campaigning on a peace agreement. The Israeli voters have never chosen peace - because they've never been given the opportunity.

So what does this mean for Palestine?

I would suggest that the cloud may have a silver lining - as long as Livni can resist the blandishments that are about to be lavished on her. Israel will soon have a government so extreme that not even AIPAC can paper over it. Lieberman's ship-em-out agenda is absolute anathema to the liberal Jewish America which just voted overwhelmingly for Obama. A Lieberman-Bibi government may crystalise the disenchantment that is just now breaking through to mainstream media :



As in the USSR extreme action creates a reaction. If Livni has the moral courage to go into opposition then Netanyahu will lose his fig leaf and two party democracy may be restored. From the American side there will be Mitchell, who knows both Congress and the settlements intimately. And Clinton, whose husband's antipathy to Bibi is well known.

The next two years will be ugly, but there is hope at the end of it.

From Tel Aviv to Bogota

AP broke the news, confirming what many have suspected - Israelis are training death squads in South / Central America.

The story has been picked up by IHT and Haaretz - the IHT link is here

Interpol issued an international arrest warrant Tuesday for three Israelis
accused of training private armies of Colombian drug cartels and right-wing
death squads.
Yair Klein, Melnik Ferri and Tzedaka Abraham were being sought
on charges of criminal conspiracy and instruction in terrorism and face nearly
11 years in prison if convicted.

The Associated Press, April 3 2007

There have long been rumors of Israeli involvement in the drug cartels - my Colombian relatives tell of recent IDF equipment showing up in rebel hands. Apparantly ex-IAF Cobra gunships are the mule of choice for the Cartagena-Miami cocaine run.

Note that Yair Klein is a former Colonel in the IDF. He's also a former associate of Pablo Escobar and recent prison inmate in Sierra Leone courtesy of an abortive blood diamonds deal.

These arrests fit a pattern. Israel has history in Central America. For years Israeli "Security Companies" did the CIA's dirty work in Honduras ad El Salvador. One of the most notorious operatives was Leo Gleser, who through his front company ISDS trained right wing Honduran death squads at the time of Iran-Contra .

Yossi Melman disects Leo Gesler here

There were years in which "Colonel Gleser," as he is known in several Latin
American countries, was described there as an Israeli mercenary who assists
repressive regimes....Gleser and his company created the Special Forces of the Honduras army and supplied them with equipment manufactured by Israel Military Industries, from Galil and sniper rifles to personal gear

Yossi Melman, Haaretz, 30/03/2006

Amazingly this man is now being quoted, approvingly, by the AJC and The Republican as an "EL AL security expert", competent to advise on domestic law and order.

His company has also been used by the US army at Fort Bragg to train Iraq-bound US "Special Forces". And Americans are surprised that Iraqis see them as Occupiers!

Israeli "Security" - coming soon to a police force near you!

Qalandiya - Strangling East Jerusalem

Last week my wife and I endured our first Qalandiya experience.

Qualandiya is the infamous terminal style checkpont that Israel has constructed since 2003, separating Ramallah from East Jerusalem. This is where it is located :



It is important to understand that historically, Ramallah and Bethlehem are merely dormitory suburbs of East Jerusalem - the commute into the capital for work, shopping or family visits was until recently a routine daily. No more - it is now a 4 hour humiliation, clearly designed to sever the economic ties between Arab Jerusalem and its West Bank hinterland.

This is a typical saturday :



Below is the full slideshow of our ordeal - photos were taken despite the Palestinians pleading with us to hide the camera :

Qalandiya Slide Show

Hamas and Recognition

Check out Leila Mouammar's Blog http://blog.zmag.org/blog/20

I think the recognition issue has been handled badly, by both the PLO in 1988/1991, and by Hamas now. Both have played very badly in the west. The PLO's old position allowed western people to think that there was in fact no occupation. Hamas' position is now justifying Israeli unilateralism

I think we should neither rule out formal recognition nor give it for free at the beginning of the process. I think the best strategy for Palestine is to say something like :

- We are committed to a two state solution
- At the end of that process when two viable sovereign states are created there must be mutual recognition between them.
- But if Israel destroys the two state solution by settlements, land expropriation etc then Israel will become a de facto binational state, and we will seek equal rights (Israeli citizenship)
- there is a time limit on a two state solution - we are not going to wait forever and we are not going to allow it to be used as an empty slogan to perpetuate the occupation.

One other thought :

Palestine should say clearly that recognition means recognition of the fact of Israel's existence within a specified border. It does not mean approving or indemnifying every crime that Israel committed in the past.

ie When Nixon recognised the Peoples Republic of China he did not become a Communist, and when we recognise Israel we should not have to become Zionists

"We take the land first and the law comes after"

Teddy Kolleck,
Mayor of Jerusalem, 1965 to 1993

This is especially so in East Jerusalem. Israel has turned it into an art form - and now I am in the middle of it.

Now the London Guardian has spelt it out :

Bollens says about 40% of East Jerusalem is designated as a green zone, but that
this is really a mechanism for land transfer. "The government calls it a
green zone to stop Palestinians building homes there, and then when the
government wants to develop an area [as Jewish] it lifts that green zoning
miraculously and it becomes a development place."
"Worlds Apart",The Guardian, February 6, 2006

So the progression is :

Palestinian Land becomes "Green Zone"

=> Palestinians not allowed to build

=> Triggers Absentee Property Law

=> Formal Appropriation by Israel

=> "Development Plan" (for Jews Only)

=> "Facts on the Ground"

=> Hemmed in Bantustans

= APARTHEID

That is the only place this is leading - two separate, communities living in the same state, only one of which has citizenship and effective property rights.

Israel hates the comparison, but as the two state solution dies its slow sad death people are starting to notice :

Ronnie Kasrils on Israeli Apartheid

Yet let me declare without hyperbole that the violence of the apartheid regime,
as inhuman as it was, "was a picnic" (in the words of Archbishop Desmond
Tutu) in comparison with the utter brutality of Israel’s occupation of Palestine.

Ronnie Kasrils MP
(Jewish) Minister for Intelligence, Republic of South Africa

"They Are Treating People Here like Arabs"

An excellent article from Haaretz today summed up the Israeli settlement movement

For almost 40 years they have been enjoying an ongoing supply of political and economic support, military protection and legal backing. And then one fine day, without prior warning, someone decided to turn off the faucet.

But the settlement project is approaching a tipping point - they are starting to lose the support of the Israeli public.

Maybe a red line has been crossed at Amona, as the settlers fought in defiance of a Supreme Court Order. The settlers certainly absorb alot of government money considering that they only recognise the law when it suits them.

One Australian activist has noticed the change :

People have told me "only a few years ago settlers were still seen as
heroes" now it seems to be a selling point in the election who can be most
harsh to the settlers

LINK

You can tell that the settlers are worried - one leader complained that the gobvernment had

"They are treating people here like Arabs"

Israeli MP Arieh Eldad, Israeli Radio, February 2 2006

No they're not - if you were treated like Arabs you'd be dead.

"The Bulldozer" hits Bethlehem!

My fiancee Richelle was so moved by her experience in Israel / Palestine that she signed up for a 10 week internship at the Israeli Committee against Housing Demolitions, in Jerusalem, starting January 2006.

After a week in Jerusalem Richelle visited Bethlehem to check on the land. This is what she found :



The settler is gone, but so is the house !

The neighbours confirmed that Israeli bulldozers demolished the house 1 week previously. We made the news :

IMEMC & Agencies - Monday, 16 January 2006, 17:21
Israeli bulldozers demolished on Monday morning a Palestinian housing building at the
northern entrance of the West Bank city of Bethlehem, near Rachel's Tomb.The
Jerusalem municipality alleged that this building was built without building
permit, soldiers blocked the area and prevented the residents from approaching
the building, local sources reported.Residents denied the alleged absence of
building permit and said that this demolition is part of the Israeli policy to
control the Bethlehem area.

Back to Bethlehem

And so this is what we found in Bethlehem :

Rachel's Tomb is a bit harder to get to than before



Our land now has a house on it



(that's the illegal settlement of Har Homa in the background left. Of course things change quickly here - this is Har Homa 5 years ago)


But the house wasn't finished yet ....



so I amused myself in wrecking all the brand new tiles that the settler had left there.

Noone was living there but there was clearly alot of recent work going on.


And just to make this a rich multimedia experience, here is

"Visiting Bethlehem - THE VIDEO"

The Settlement Machine

Before we left, I decided to do some research on the Israeli settlement "system".

The process is well documented. Akiva Eldar wrote in Ha'aretz, 2005 :

Right under the noses, in the best case, of prime ministers, chiefs of staff and
GOCs of the Central Command, who are responsible for "Judea and Samaria"
(the West Bank), among them Barak himself, the State of Israel has imposed
the law of the jungle on those territories.

This is what happens in the jungle :

Building companies owned and managed by settler leaders and land dealers acquire
lands from Palestinian crooks and transfer them to the Custodian of
Government Property in the Israel Lands Administration. The custodian
"converts" the lands to "state lands," leases them back to settler
associations that then sell them to building companies.

and furthermore :

The Justice Ministry has responded that "property will be considered government
property as long as the opposite has not been proven. Hence, it is possible to
declare that privately owned land is government property, only if the owners of
the land have asked the Custodian of Government Property to manage the
property."

Here's the entire land theft article.

So there we have the crux of the issue. Under the Occupation there is a reverse onus of proof. The fact that land has been owned by your family for generations means nothing if a rogue settler decides he likes the look of it. The onus is then on the owner to prove title. In the court of a foreign, occupying country.

A Phonecall from Palestine

Hello to everyone in cyberspace

This Blog is my take on the Israel - Palestine conflict. There will be political debate, live information and hopefully some insight. I welcome comments from all and sundry.

But first I am going to be indulgent and start on a personal note.

In May 2005 I received an anxious phonecall from Bethlehem, Palestine - about a piece of land at a place called "Jrun el Hummus".

Jrun el Hummus is at the northern entrance to Bethlehem - quite close to Rachel's Tomb - here is a map :



I will publish my full bio soon - but put simply the land in question was purchased by my great grandfather Jadullah Siman in the early 1920's. The land is well located - between Bethlehem and Jerusalem and immediately to the West of the "Security fence" / Apartheid Wall. To this day it is registered in my great grandfather's name in the Jerusalem "Tabu" (land registry). There are four heirs to Jadullah's property - my mother in Australia, my cousins Carlos Muvdi and George Siman in Colombia, and our cousin Henry in Los Angeles.

Early last year (2005) an Israeli gentleman entered this land without permission. He was armed and claimed to have purchased our land from an "unamed foreign owner". Now this is clearly ludicrous - the property is held by my famly, we are all in contact with each other and noone has sold anything.

The intruder threatened the neighbours with violence if they tried to resist his incursion and moreover refused to show any proof of purchase. And he started to build - in a hurry. When challenged, his response was simple :

"If you don't like it then take me to court. It will take 2 years and 10,000
dollars, and by the time the case is heard there will be a fact on the ground.
And by the way, it is probably not in your interest to make trouble for me"

I didn't realise it at the time, but I was about become part of a live case study into Israel's settlement "machine" : a loose network of colonists who operate on the fringes of the law, IDF personnel who look the other way, a local population too terrified to protest, and in the background opportunistic property development companies and a semi official government master plan.

But this was all in the future - first I had to travel to Israel / Palestine to get the facts...