2011 - Year of Decision

So how will it all end? Is 2011 the year of decision?

Andrew Sullivan seems to think so. Apparantly the last two years of mind numbing inertia is another one of Barack Hussein Muhammad Ali Obama's rope-a-dope sessions, as he lures yet another self regarding opponent into the big over-reach :

What Obama has done is get Netanyahu unwittingly to make the global argument that a peace settlement cannot be won with Israel's support and cooperation - but can only be imposed somehow from outside.

It is an interesting perspective. Obama has allowed himself to be humiliated so as to demonstrate the futility of the current course. Personally I feel Sullivan places too much faith in Obama's powers of foresight - it looks more to me like an under-prepared administration groping towards a strategy. There is also the possibility that Obama has simply given up, and decided to focus on the economy for the next twelve months while, at the very least, parking the conflict until his second term.

But let's assume that Andrew Sullivan is right, and there is a larger game being played. This means that it must come to a head in 2011. The US and Israeli electoral timetables dictate that the next 12 months are the last opportunity for tough decisions to be made. The Iranian nuclear clock is also ticking towards a similar conclusion. So what impact does this have on Palestinian strategy? There are a few to note

• Abu Mazen's term as President has expired - elections to the PA are overdue
• Bolivia has now joined Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil in recognising Palestine on the 67 borders
• Salam Fayyad insists that Palestine is on track to declare statehood in August 2011

The US House of Representatives is of course passing resolutions equating Palestinian UDI to the four horsemen of the apocalypse - but these have no legal status. The President is sovereign when it comes to foreign policy. So what will actually happen over the next six months? Netanyahu continues to give Obama the run around. Abu Mazen continues to accumulate recognition throughout Latin America, and maybe also Asia. The PLO petitions the UN in August 2011 to recognise the '67 borders, while making it clear that a "No" vote will lead to Abu Mazen's resignation and the dismemberment of the PA.

Then everything will rest on Obama's Security Council veto. Obama turns to Bibi and says in his best Chicago voice "We can do this the hard way or the easy way..."

It will be fun to watch. Merry Christmas.